I think Rio has more chance than Cars 2, but I wouldn’t bet on anything. None of them are released except Gnomeo and Juliet, which, ugh…won’t get anything. But Cars 2 looks more fun than emotional, and usually the most emotional wins. But I would prefer a light-hearted Pixar film after the past 3 releases. Seriously. 
I mean, they are all good, and I love them all. But I need a breather here!!
Interesting choices. If you would permit me to make an analysis here… I have to agree with IV that Cars 2 doesn’t look like a very serious film… (as well as the fact that Pixar is being increasingly melodramatic over the years and they need a ‘breather’) I mean this in the sense that yes, it is emotional… it’s action-packed and hilarious, so those are emotions… but the Academy is not very kind to light-hearted fare. There’s an underlying theme of Lightning and Mater’s friendship being put to the test, but it seems to be largely overshadowed by the spy motif.
Rango, it seems most people agree, is a lock-in for a Nom. TinTin is a CGI-mocap along the lines of Polar Express and Christmas Carol… we’ll have to see if they stay true to Herge’s source. We can safely ignore Mars Need Moms and Gnomeo & Juliet (unless I read reviews to the contrary). That leaves Rio, Kung Fu Panda 2, and Puss in Boots. Rio, IMO will be the next safest after Rango, because it has an exotic location and an Oscar-friendly theme of love and friendship in a strange land (Casablanca, The English Patient, that sorta thing).
Then it’d be either Kung Fu Panda 2 or Puss in Boots. Of the two, KFP2 stands a stronger chance because its predecessor was nominated back in '08. Puss in Boots is a spin-off the first Animated Film winner though, so I’m still keeping an eye on it.
So my prediction would read:
Rango
Rio
Kung Fu Panda 2
I agree. I mean, I’m sure we’ll all love Cars 2. I’m almost certain I will. But that doesn’t mean it’s serious/dark enough for an Oscar nomination. 
Just friendly speculation, though.
Well, if you rule out Cars 2 because of the “seriousness”, you have to remove Kung Fu Panda as well. I say we wait for the reviews of both, as they’ve nominated a lot of movies far more light-hearted than how Cars 2 looks. It also would be the first time Pixar won’t get nominated.
So, if one of them gets in, that leaves two spots. Probably Rango on one. Also, we’ll have to wait for Rio, as it can be just another Despicable Me, with good reviews and such but not Oscar material.
And I hope bryanbmp is right and Tintin can have a chance. The technique is far more advanced than in earlier motion capture efforts, and apparently they’re staying true to the source. And we also have to consider the big names involved on its production. I really want that movie to succeed, since I’m not just a big Spielberg fan, but a Tintin fan too.
Or, we can be lucky and have five spots this year 
Well, I agree. That’s why I’m not betting until I’ve seen them all. 
Yes. But I agree we can safely rule out Mars Need Moms and Gnomeo & Juliet.
Totally agree, especially for G&J. I have strange hope for MNM’s, though. It’initials are MnM
But it already received it’s reviews and the results weren’t good.
Okay, then. I haven’t read them, so I didn’t know.
all you are forgetting Happy Feet 2 and Arthur Christmas,
HF 1 won the oscar in 2007 against Cars ( 
) and AC is from Aardman (Wallace & Gromit were from them and won the oscar in 2006)
those films have more chance to be nominated rather than Rio or Kung Fu Panda 2, however I still think that Cars 2 will surprise everyone ( after all it is Lasseter’s baby and he won’t do wrong)
Yep, Arthur Christmas may have a chance, but it may not do as well as it’s not claymation. The other CGI Aardman effort, Flushed Away, didn’t get nominated, despite somewhat favorable reviews.
I don’t know what to say about Happy Feet 2. We’ll have to wait, but personally, I don’t think the first one deserved that Oscar.
you are right it didn’t deserve, warner hasn’t showed up anything yet, but we have to accpet that it is an oscar winner farnquise
It was painful to finish HF1, it was incredibly boring and tacky. I disliked it even before it was even noiminated for an Oscar, imagine my rage when it beat Cars!
I enjoyed all three nominees from 06, but think they were all pretty weak as far as films go. I honestly think the Academy could’ve skipped a year and it wouldn’t have made much difference.
They just don’t function as fully satisfying movies for me. Happy Feet has all of its issues on what kind of movie it wants to be, Cars isn’t quite up to the standards of the Pixar films that both preceded and proceeded it, and Monster House falls short of capturing the magic of the films it was homaging, though it was a very good effort.
They all had a little something going on, Happy Feet had its stellar musical numbers, Cars had its breathtaking visuals and likable characters, Monster House had its darker tone and compelling story. But each lacked that special je ne sais quoi that makes a movie really great!
Suffice to say, I honestly don’t understand why people get upset over who won that year because all of them just seemed entertaining (depending on what you like) but not really Oscar-worthy.
And now 5 years later, all of them are getting a sequel except the only one that I’d like to have seen have another go at it. I think there are still more stories that could be told in the world set up by Monster House. Certainly more than there could be told by Happy Feet anyway, which I thought said everything that needed to be said about sad dancing penguins.
For the record, I hope Rango leads the charge next year. But I doubt that’ll happen. It’s too out of the box. It should get a nomination at least. But I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to say this is probably the strangest and most interesting of animated films that will probably be released this year. At least on a large scale anyway.
I’ve yet to see Rango, but a part of me is apprehensive. I think it’s because the animation kind of weirds me out a little in a way, sort of almost uncanny valley even if it doesn’t involve robots looking like humans- but merely animals not generally standing on all fours and talking and looking a bit too little like their real life non-talking counterparts in some ways. It’s a bit too… realistic.
But I’m still going to see it, I’m just hoping that weird little thing won’t bug me and I’ll be able to get into it.
I’ve heard both good things in addition to ‘good but some critique about x y and z’ though so it seems promising.
I must admit I also dislike Happy Feet. Which makes me sad, because I love the idea and premise, just not the final product. 
But out of 2006, I believe it deserved to win. I know you’ll all flame me, but I’ll explain anywho. Over The Hedge was not great. It just wasn’t. And for Cars, I love it. But is it a great movie? No. Besides, everyone knows the Academy prefers political emotional dramas, and Cars was none of those things. Happy Feet was all of them. So, we might not like HF, but to me, out of the animation in 2006(not that great at all, IMO), I think it deserved it. You can prefer whatever you like, but looking at all the animated films in 2006, it’s obvious who would have won, with or without seeing any of them. 
Yes, that’s the sad truth. Happy Feet didn’t deserve to win. But 2006 was somewhat feeble for the animation industry.
^That’s what I mean. It’s not very good, but there wasn’t much decent competition. Even for die hard Pixar and animation buffs as us, I still find it hard to deny that OtH and Cars were not masterpieces.
Cars was no masterpiece, I always say it. It’s by far the weakest of the Pixar canon.
But was Happy Feet better than it? Maybe I should watch it again.
I believe it has higher quality, but less fun. Personally.