Thought it was about time now to make a thread where we can talk about the election as it happens, and thoughts after the fact.
Since the campaign isn’t over yet (when it is, we can discuss what went right and wrong here), but since it’s not over yet, just a few random thoughts on polls, money – and a question to those in the UK and other countries about elections.
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At this point, it’s all about the ground game. Which side can get their people out to vote.
Polls
The polls currently have Obama ahead, but I don’t believe Obama is a shoe-in for a second. Early voting data has favored him this time (in states that allow early voting), but there’s a bad sign for Obama in the early voting data as well:
Youth Vote Missing
The early voting data shows that the youth vote (those under 35) that was supposed to come out in droves (especially for Obama) – hasn’t come out at all. Both campaigns (but especially Obama’s) signed up millions of new, young voters this year. But the data shows that so far, those under 35 have voted LESS by this point this year than at the same time in the 2004 election! So is this the youth vote staying home this time? I can’t believe it, in such an election! But the data seems to point to it. Or are they just waiting for election day? This is bad for Obama. The highest rate for voters is senior citizens, which tend to favor McCain.
Hours:
I think it’s terrible that in some states (Virginia, Indiana) the polls close at 7:00pm on election day. Most people are just lucky to get home from work by 7:00pm. And many of these states, like Pennsylvania (7:30pm close) have no early voting, except absentee mailed vote. Many states stay open until 8:00pm, which I think should be the minimum.
Why can’t we make our elections standardized?
Many people from outside the US must wonder why a country that put people on the moon 40 years ago still can’t have a standardized election. The reason is becasue of the Federal system we have. An election (even a national election) is NOT administered by the US Government, but by the states themselves. There are Federal guidelines and protections and such, but in general, it’s the States that each decide on things like what type of voting machine to use, how late to stay open, if things can be challeneged, etc. So you have a collection of 50 completely different ways of voting (51 with D.C.) And even within a state, decisions are often left to the counties. So even within the same state, the voting machine type (touch-screen, non-touch-screen, paper, punch, fill-in-the-oval, etc) and other issues will vary depending upon what county you are in. On the news was that in one county in California you could do “drive-thru” early voting in your car!
Show me the money
One thing I found interesting: it cost $2 billion dollars to elect a President this time (double from $1 billion last time). Think of what that money could have bought in terms of healthcare for our citizens or school funding. Of course our Constitution has protected “free speech” – and the courts have ruled that money for politics is free speech. What was strange this time was that the Democrat had the money advantage. Usually Republicans are able to outspend Democrats at least 3:1. This time Obama was able to outspend McCain quite a bit (though when you count McCain’s RNC money, it becomes a lot closer). Still, a change from the past, when Democrats were always outspent by Republicans (I find it amusing now that Republicans are complaining that Obama has tried to “buy” the election, considering every single election before this one for the past 50 years, the shoe was on the other foot).
Also, this time Obama declared he would not take PAC money (for those outside the US, PACs are Political Action Committees – groups that give money to candidates). And unlike with candidates in the past, the money didn’t come mostly from large-sum contributions from the likes of corporations (Republicans) or unions (Democrats). Instead, for all the money Obama managed to raise, the average contribution to the Obama campaign was $68. Still, the amount of money spent by both sides is pretty sick if you think about it.
What about in the UK?
I heard that in the UK (could someone verify this?) there’s a limit of 100,000 pounds (or something like this) that you’re allowed to spend on elections. And I heard something like you cannot show political TV commercials in the UK? (or if so, only right before the election?) Would be curious how it works in other countries.
What will we be doing on Wednesday?
Will we know the results by Tuesday evening? Or will the lawyers come in (from either side) and keep this going by trying to challenge the results for days or weeks?
When it comes to elections, at least we’re not Zimbabwe.
There is that.
so thanks Joehisa for making this thread.
I just fear for the crazy racists that will come out of the woodwork on go on rampages.