My comments on HTTYD’s Oscar chances (nomination and win), for each category:
Best Visual Effects: In all honesty, you’d think animated films would own this category, since all their visual material is done with special effects. Reality is different, as I can’t recall a single instance of an animated film winning this category, and there’s generally one animated nomination at best. We all know which animated movie about flying animals is going to get that nomination, and it’s not this one. NO CHANCE OF NOMINATION.
Agreed.
Best sound editing/mixing: I have no idea how to properly judge these categories, and I get the feeling that most Academy members don’t either (how did WALL-E not win these, again?). I don’t see HTTYD as having sufficiently good sound to overcome the anti-animation bias for a win, but since most Academy members don’t have a clue here, a nomination is possible. POSSIBLE NOMINATION, NO CHANCE OF WIN.
Agreed again.
Best art direction: I’m not sure offhand how many nominations there are for this, but Inception will definitely get one, and I doubt there’ll be more than two animated nominations. Any of HTTYD, TS3 and LOTG (henceforth referred to as “the big three”) could get a nomination here, and a win is quite possible if there’s only one animated nomination (the animation fans would probably spread the vote too thin if there were any more). POSSIBLE WIN.
Disagree entirely. No way an animated film will get nominated for art direction. Animated movies are overlooked in this category time and time again; I doubt this year will be any different.
Best film editing: This is a tricky category at best. Again, expect Inception to use up one of the nominations, which makes things trickier, since there are always going to be some well-edited films, often ones that you might not think of. HTTYD’s flight scenes may get it through to a nomination, though, especially if enough of the Academy saw it in 3D. I couldn’t possibly comment on chances of a win, though. POSSIBLE NOMINATION.
Eh, not expecting a nomination here.
Best Original Song: These nominations often come out of nowhere for me. Espect “We Belong Together” to use up a nomination, because Randy Newman is of the most regular nominees for this Oscar. Otherwise, it’s completely open, and although I can’t think of anything better than Sticks and Stones (other than the aforementioned We Belong Together, but that’s not so much a competitor as a lock in), nominations for this Oscar are often surprising. I’m fairly sure Randy Newman will be clutching another Oscar on the awards night, though, just because people will want to give TS3 a proper send-off (hey, it worked for Lord of the Rings). POSSIBLE NOMINATION, LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF A WIN.
Nope, no way this is getting a nod for that.
Best Original Score: We’ve been discussing it on here recently, and I think most of us agree that this film has the best score of the year so far. In fact, I’m just going to go out there and say that this has the best score of any animated film since The Lion King, which is the last animated film I can think of to win this Oscar. NEAR-CERTAIN WIN.
WRONG! Powell is going up against heavy competition this year; Oscar-winning David Hirschfelder for Legend of the Guardians, another Oscar winner in Randy Newman for TS3, and I certainly wouldn’t put out Hans Zimmer for Inception. Oh, and I’m definitely pulling for a nod for Daft Punk in Tron: Legacy, but I doubt that’ll happen.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Frankly, calling it an adapted screenplay is pushing it a bit. Besides, this generally goes to something based on some novel no one’s ever heard of. The lack of competition from TS3 could help HTTYD sneak a nomination through, but I think LOTG will stop it. I’d need to know how many nominees there are to state this with any degree of certainty. UNLIKELY NOMINATION.
I actually think this has a decent chance of getting nominated. But you’re wrong in saying this isn’t getting competition from TS3; since it’s based off of already existing characters and ideas, TS3 will be running for Best Adapted Screenplay as well.
Best Animated Feature. Okay, find me a single person in the world who thinks that there are three better animated films (heck, you may have to find five) than this released this year. I think you’ll fail. Now, find me a person who doesn’t love Toy Story in general, and TS3 in particular, and isn’t a troll. You’ll probably fail as well. CERTAIN NOMINATION, NO CHANCE OF A WIN.
Agreed on the certain nomination point, but “ehhh” on the no chance of a win. The Academy loathes sequels, so TS3 may be put at a disadvantage there, and to go along with that, both TS3 and HTTYD have received universal acclaim this year. Put that up along with The Illusionist (which has gotten blazing reviews in Europe so far) and LotG (which we have yet to see), and you’ve got one of the most heated races for this category of all time.
Best Picture: Utterly impossible to judge for certain at this point, as most Oscar bait is released closer to the Oscars for obvious reasons. I’m going to give TS3 a certain nomination for this, again for the farewell factor, so HTTYD would have to make history by forming part of the first pair of animated films to get nominated for Best Picture in the same year. I can’t see it happen. The vast majority of critics liked it, but I don’t think enough loved it. I could be wrong, though. IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL AT THIS POINT.
I think it has a good chance, but like you said, it is indeed impossible to call at the moment.