Predict how TS3 will end at the box office.

I predict it will beat out Finding Nemo for the highest grossing Pixar film (domestically). How it will fare against Shrek 2 I’m not sure.

Currently it’s #5 in worldwide totals for highest-grossing movies. Since it made half of Iron Man’s current total in little over a week, it should surpass Iron Man II and become second-highest worldwide. Then there’s Alice in Wonderland… I’m not expecting it, but the movie sure does have potential to cross 1 billion.

It definetly could top Finding Nemo. For the final total, I’m betting $800 million to $1 billion. I may be overestimating a billion, but who knows.

Beating ‘Shrek 2’ is a longshot. That’s going to depend on looong staying power…something most films don’t have.

Keep in mind that now that IMAX 3D screens are being used by Eclipse, it’s just a matter of time before the 3D movie screens are snatched up by the next big film release…and then TS3 will have to fend for itself on standard screens.

In my mind, it’ll come close if not beat Nemo’s gross in the US.

Will with Eclipse now taking up screens and here comes The Last Airbender there isn’t much room left except surely it’ll outlast Knight & Day, Killers, and that’ll mainly leave Eclipse, The Last Airbender, Toy Story 3 and Grown Ups. I predict The Last Airbender will be the first to go from there and then Toy Story 3 has a chance at keeping more screens, especially it’s 3D showings, since Grown Ups isn’t in 3D (thank goodness no Adam Sandler egghead in our faces :stuck_out_tongue: )

Potential to reach 1bill? Absolutely. I’m watching it’s numbers go up everyday. Eclipse will be around for a while but it’s attendance is going to boom in one weekend and then drop from there. Toy Story 3 is going to keep bringing in a consistent crowd. These are just my personal predictions. It’s ambitious but I would love to see it beat out Alice. It may come in second highest grossing this year, either way I’m already proud of the film. There’s not doubt that it’s already a blooming success, and still so young.

The Last Airbender is getting some HORRIBLE reviews, so I wouldn’t worry about that one. And Eclipse has such a different demographic that there really isn’t much overlap with Toy Story 3. I think theater owners will want to find a way to accommodate both Toy Story and Twilight fans for a while.

I predict around $425-450 million in the US, and around $800-850 million world wide.

The toys are raking in the moolah Down Under with a $7 million weekend B.O. taking. In 1999, TS2 took in more than $20 mill in Oz, and pundits are expecting this total to be eclipsed in the coming weeks. In comparison, the not-so-friendly green ogre and friends roped in $2 mill in its 2nd week of release (3rd if you count advances).

TS3 is No. 1 again in the US with a $68 million weekend, but will it hold up to the teenage fantasy-creature lovefest Twitlite Eek-Crisps? :frowning:

I am horrific with predictions, but I think it has the potential to beat out the top 3 grossing films (Lion King, Finding Nemo, and Shrek 2). That would be really neat!

I don’t see how it doesn’t beat Nemo in domestic box office, given the quick start. Yeah, it’s lost screens (and particularly 3D ones) to Twilight, but it’s still on two 2D and two 3D screens at my nearest multiplex, and I think it’s going to outlast a lot of other summer movies. Up stayed around quite a while here last year, including the 3D showings, and I think TS3 is going to have long, long legs thanks to repeat viewings and great word of mouth.

i strongly believe toy story 3 stands a chance to beat shrek 2 and become the #1 animated film ever, even if just barely. worldwide, it definitely could pass $1 billion.

It has to pass $868M worldwide to beat Nemo and $920M to beat Shrek2. Actually Ice Age 3 beat Nemo with $887M last year, despite its blah domestic. To be the #1 film of the year it has to pass Alice: $334M domestic and $1.021B global. As of yesterday, it pushed to $269M, a full 2 week total plus a Friday. And that would seem to be a shoe-in, especially given its fall-off rate.

Fall-off rate. It’s been dropping faster than most animated movies, such as Up, because it’s a well known franchise and had a big first week. Its fall rate is a little over 40% per week. Amazingly, this did not accelerate in the 3 days Eclipse and Airbender have been out, which is good news. (Poor Airbender, a 9% TM rating.) Hold your horses. Next week Despicable Me, an animated film with a very high TM rating is being released, with good press. It will indeed be the one to hurt TS3, just like IA3 hurt Up last summer.

On Friday, TS3 took in a respectable $10M, which should be a good bit higher on Saturday here. As mentioned, Eclipse is probably the most front-loaded franchise ever, and will have to struggle to match the $300M of New Moon. IronMan2 is at $308M and will be passed next week as TS3 marches to a Thursday total of around $314M, leaving the finale of HarryPotter to take the crown, or will it?

How will it end up? Up scored $136M beyond its first 2 weeks. TS3 is a bigger movie, but is somewhat front-loaded. If these cancel each other out, then it finishes after Labor Day somewhere around $395M, far short of Shrek2’s $441M domestic. But I think ‘bigger’ is bigger and it will slide well over $400M, and it’s probably better to look at Shrek2, which had done $266M by its 14th day, +$7M over TS3. And Woody’s take is almost identical to Shrek’s 3rd Friday, at over $10M. So it’s very hard to call it!

Overseas: this is very hard to gauge. Toy Story wasn’t a big overseas franchise, while Shrek and Ice Age have gained a big following in the past 10 years. While TS3 is a smash in Mexico and doing very well in Australia, it’s been dull in Russia, where IA3 last summer was that country’s biggest box ever till Avatar.

Here is a list, from ABCDiamond, and just as lizardgirl said last month about these lists, watch for errors!

12 June 2010 Italy
15 June 2010 Argentina
16 June 2010 China, Egypt
16 June 2010 Iceland
17 June 2010 Argentina, Hungary, Israel, Malaysia, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore
18 June 2010 Brazil, Bulgaria, U.S.A., Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, Taiwan
18 June 2010 Kazakhstan, Panama, Romania
23 June 2010 Netherlands
24 June 2010 Australia, Greece, Kuwait
1 July 2010 New Zealand
2 July 2010 Turkey
7 July 2010 Italy
10 July 2010 Japan
14 July 2010 France
15 July 2010 Hong Kong
16 July 2010 Estonia
23 July 2010 Spain, UK
28 July 2010 Belgium
29 July 2010 Germany, Portugal
5 August 2010 South Korea
26 August 2010 Denmark
27 August 2010 Finland, Norway, Sweden

There was an article in the newspaper today about Toy Story 3. The main gist of it was complaining about the massive difference we have to pay for Toy Story merchandise in comparison to the US (stuff going for £15 there will be on the shelves for £29.99 here, that sort of thing). And then it said that in terms of total amount of money made, both from box office takings and merchandise, the expected target is $2.5 billion for Toy Story 3. It just seems like such a crazy amount of money!

Box office alone, well I’m sure other members’ guesses on here will be more accurate than mine, but passing $1 billion does seem likely.

Don’t forget people, the 3D and IMAX surcharge may just help it leapfrog over past B.O. records. Along with the usual inflation and price jacking by cinemas.

lizardgirl I read that article too, it’s online. It was pretty interesting!

The UK, Germany, and France’s release date should definetly give us some reinforcements. US and Austrailia are holding out for now, but Europe is gonna give us some needed firepower.

LOL it sounds like your talking about war strategy or something! Great War of the Box Office

You’re not a soldier.

YOU’RE A PENGUIN.

YOU LIVE IN THE CENTRAL PARK ZOO.

…Wait, did I just reference Dreamworks? OH NO!

a mob of rabid Pixar fans descends on me

(I want to give you karma for that post, but this forum doesn’t have karma.)

Well, there’s no law against talking like we’re in a war, no? :slight_smile: We want our toys to win, don’t we?

Ha, yes Captain! :laughing:

As of Tuesday, the domestic box office is $301.8 million, and the international take is $150.8 million.

I am sticking with my prediction of around $425 million domestically. With all of the European venues that still haven’t even opened, I have no idea about the international totals, but I could see it bringing in about the same as the domestic total.

First of all ellie-jessie-eve we take our box office very seriously. Whenever I come to this thread I set up my 3-dimensional chess boards on both sides of the computer and carefully place several dozen green plastic soldiers thereabouts.

Is this the link you guys are talking about with the toy merchandise quote? I’ve mentioned elsewhere about the tremendous amount of TS toys I see at ToysRUs and WalMart. spotlight-online.de/news/fil … d-its-back . What impressed me is how the developers toned down the 3-D so as not to distract from the story, which happened to me in Up.

The ads for Despicable Me are mounting. They don’t look that good, but the TM rating is near 100%. We have to wait till Friday to see if the toys have serious competition. And that $425M guess is a very good one. I have yet to come up with an exact number.