Predict how TS3 will end at the box office.

I’d love that too. TS3 so deserves it

Crawls to $1,060,700,000 global, up around $1.1M, with about $450K from the U.S., where it falls to #22 on the list. U.S, take is up to $413.9M on 337 screens, a slight drop, and the haul again was about $450K, which was a moderate drop. The dvd is in release here as of Today! (I’d just bought the Dragon dvd, saw that movie only once in the theaters, and was glad to see it at my leisure. Most of the other dragons were ridiculously designed. Why didn’t they take the opportunity to expand on their ingenious Night Fury??)

So the box should recede in the next few weeks, faster than usual, with perhaps a blip here in the U.S. for the big family Thanksgiving holiday week.

U.S. Box roundup for 2010. Still on the topic of the U.S., TS3 is still going neck and neck with Inception and Despicable Me, both released a full month later, which is quite a tribute to staying power. Inception is falling short of $300M, while Despicable will fall short of $250M, but beat the so-so Shrek4. Twilight: Eclipse did indeed just push past the $300M mark, and approached the so-so (in my opinion) IronMan2. And of course Disney/Burton at the #2 spot with the so-so (more of my opinion, shared by many others here!) Alice in Slumberland (I fell asleep for a while). And the Dragon rounds out the top8, until HarryPotter comes knocking again. Six of these 9 are sequels/remakes, only 3 are entirely original.

Oct. 24th global update: up to $34M in Spain, this is a $3M** increase over the previous 4 weeks, and unexpected pickup. $16.5M in Scandinavia, a pickup of $1.1M in past week, $117.5M in Britain, an increase of only $500K in 2 weeks. Italy has moved up to $19.0M, a pickup of $1.5M in just 2 weeks. So all those closed theaters in August are open again and getting some leftover business. Germany is reported to be absolutely flat. Australia is at $38.0M and will be interesting to see if it can gain any more, thedriveintheatre with the new IMAX screens! There is no current info for S. Korea, France or the Netherlands. All other recent release, large nations have figures reported.

**unless fluctuating exchange rates have powered this…

I’m very eager to see Boneknapper, DarkHand, although I am a little disappointed by the comments about it.

Anyway, the Sydney IMAX has just brought TS3 back for a repeat season this month. Expect the coffers to be filled with another thousand dollars or so when repeat viewers or people who missed it the first time pony up the exorbitant IMAX ticket prices. :slight_smile:

How much longer will Toy Story 3 be out for? If it’s out for another 6-10 weeks, it should become the 4th highest grossing film. and that’d be awesome.

While driving past my local dollar theatre today, I saw Toy Story 3 listed there at last.

When The Dark Knight came out and I saw it in dollar theatres, there were hordes of people there, probably who missed it the first time or just wanted to see it cheap before deciding on an expensive DVD.

With Toy Story 3 being… well, Toy Story 3, this extra time, this second life in the dollar theatres with the DVD out, could quite possibly push us into Fourth Highest of All Time!

Add $400K for the past week in the U.S.A., and still an undetermined amount from overseas, still checking on this, but it seems less. Boxofficemojo says that the holiday period has begun! And the #1 movie is the animated Megamind, not surprising, such movies will do well over the holiday, even with HPtheLast coming.

U.S. take has now gone to $414.3M. Global is in excess of $1,061,100,000. That should include $200K (Edit: might be $400K actually) from Scandinavia, which has now exceeded predictions over at worldofkj.com. Brazil this week pushed to a total of just over $25M. The problem is, and this happened a couple of weeks ago, the posted global for TS3 is short of posted national gains, which are at least $600K, and might be over $800K. So I’m guessing $1,061,500,000 total. If that’s true, TS3 needs $4.7M to slip into 4th spot. It probably won’t make it… (Edit: now Monday they are saying its over $1,062,000,000, needing $4.2M more.) It would probably need around $1.5M just from the U.S. to do it and that happened last Labor Day in early Sept., but it’s not certain to happen now, with the dvd already out. Note: I’m not seeing huge sales of the dvd here. Only a little more than half sold at one Safeway near me and the other had a 2x sized cardboard rack and it sold less than half of what was offered. Last year Up nearly sold out at the one and sold more than half at the other outlet. Wall-E did nearly that well, so not a good sign for the toys, altho very spotty.

Finally, something from Australia, where TS3 has pushed over $42M, far more than previously reported:
if.com.au/2010/09/29/article … VJOIY.html

Note this is still 5 week old info from down-under. So, after having a spectacular start, our movie faded there somewhat, but continued to reap admissions long after.

Edit Nov. 15th: only about $650,000 global this past week, including $300K from the U.S. Now stands at $1,062,638,000. This includes $700K from Scandinavia from the past 3 weeks. Also, add $300K from Spain over the same period. Real holiday armies start in the U.S. next weekend with the release of HP7, the only possible box office threat to the Toys. This is why Dreamworks released Megamind here at this time. Rentrak is calling TS3 the #1 dvd in the week ending Nov. 6th, but isn’t bothering to give us any sales numbers or relative standing. My guess is that sales will continue strongly all thru New Years, and it might perhaps surpass Avatar, which everyone saw and mostly didn’t bother to buy the plain vanilla dvd.

Edit Nov. 21st: just under $200K this past week from the U.S. and still an unknown amount from overseas, which will be very hard to add up from individual territories at this late stage. Boxofficemojo is reporting $648.0M overseas and $1,062.8M overall. Perhaps some families will be heading out to the drive-ins at this time of the year? Cold and rainy here in California. Most of the $1-2 shows are indoors. I imagine they have these overseas too.

This isn’t being posted anywhere else on this subforum, altho there is a Dvd thread, and it goes hand-in-hand with the box, so…:

TS3 scores as many dvd sales it’s first week as did Up last November here in the U.S. It was well over 10x as many as the rest of the top5, including How to Train Your Dragon. The estimated total was 3.8M, compared to 3.9M for Up’s first week. (Btw, Up managed to end up in 2nd place for 2009, with 10.6M sold, only 90,000 units less than Twilight, the front runner. It still might eventually surpass it, but with new ‘episodes’ of that movie coming out and renewing interest, it will be tough.) It debuted ahead of the entire 4 week total of HTTYD, entering at #8 for the year. In a couple of weeks, TS3 will be in 3rd place for the year, behind Avatar and New Moon. Neither of these titles are even on the top30 list now, so by the new year, it could be #1.

Note: its possible that the early seasonal release of the Toys depressed sales somewhat and it will rebound thru the holidays. We will know shortly. …(Edited by me for clarity after a re-read).

Edit Nov. 30th: $300K box for the past holiday week in the U.S., but again, the website I visit has stopped updating foreign totals, using very round numbers. C’est dommage! Further edit: looks like $1,063.1M now, with only $80K from overseas, which I find to be too paltry.

And as for the dvd, in the past 2 weeks it has chugged up to 5.9M sales. It was #1 again two weeks ago, but then Disney decided, coyly, to release Christmas Carol just in time for the holidays, so TS3 has been displaced, down to 3rd now on the weekly chart and has moved to #5 for 2010, and would have made it to #4 except that the heartwarming The Blind Side has re-entered, as did Avatar. In fact, the latter almost beat the Toys this week, and now has over 9M sales for 2010. “Oh no, poor Wall-E” has been passed up too. I know there is supposed to be a special edition of that colossus coming out soon, with the latest footage, some extra 26 minutes worth. Maybe they will actually include something about how they made it.

^Wow. :open_mouth: I’m shocked and impressed.

HP7 will in all likelihood NOT be the #1 film of 2010, neither in the U.S., and this is almost certain, nor globally, altho there are still 2 very major holidays to come within the month. It’s tracking a whopping 20% behind TS3, with only $244M as of today vs. $289M for the Toys on their 17th day, a veritable “free fall”, and expected for such a front loaded film, despite all the hoopla on opening weekend. But it’s not Twilight, and families will swoop in over the next holidays, taking their time when they choose to see the latest Rowling installment.

Since TS3 was released on a staggered schedule, it’s not ez to make a global comparison. It’s making 61% overseas, vs 66% for HP7. Tangled has now become the weekly top film. What’s coming… well there’s Tron, also from Disney and despite some fierce advocates, don’t expect it to even come near $1B.

This isn’t the first time Pixar has had the top grossing movie of the year!!

Edit: even more so than guessed for Thanksgiving holiday, the 4th week in for dvd sales: +1.3M units, marching a third of the way it needs to compete for the top spot. TS3 regained the top weekly spot, displacing Christmas Carol. Seasonal titles returned as did special prices for movies such as Hangover, The Dark Knight, and Happy Feet. These movies were prominently placed and sale priced at Target. These bargain prices are translating into a lot of units being sold and TS3 was barely able to push to 3rd place for 2010 over The Blind Side which sold nearly 1M copies for the week.

Box for 1st week of Dec: $56K from overseas and only $x?? from the U.S. It might finish up around $2M less than the 4th place contender from Disney, so won’t become the top Disney film ever, but less than 0.2% off is pretty close. My source is behind listing foreign receipts and is now seemingly forgotten weekend and daily output for the movie, only showing weekly box till Dec. 2. TS3 will be removed from circulation within 2 months, perhaps even soon after the New Year. I don’t know why Pixar films are dropped off the Daily receipts as soon as they fall under #15 on the list, it’s happened before and is most annoying. Oops Well, I found the reason. Even tho some theaters which already have the movie may continue to play it and report receipts, as of Dec. 2nd 2010, Toy Story 3 has officially CLOSED its theatrical run in the U.S. And that was most of the recent box! so I won’t bother to report anything else in this thread except for a final total and of course the continuing success of the dvd. Thx all for 6 months of interesting stories from Italy to Russia to Japan!!

I love tests, seriously.

DarkHandOfSigourneyWeaver wrote:

The answer is Toy Story (1995), the other #1 grossing Pixar movie of the year, domestically.
boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=1995&p=.htm
boxofficemojo.com/yearly/

TS3 needs$3,095,552 to tie for fourth place for all time worldwide movie gross and don’t be surprised it ends up as a tie. If it ends at a tie, do Rock-Paper-Scissors game to break the tie, I say, and make a marketing spectacle for both Studio films.

If HP7 does NOT have any ‘legs’ worldwide, then TS3 will be the first from Pixar to be the #1 grossing film of the year, worldwide.
boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/? … 010&p=.htm

Dvd sales: for the week ending Dec. 5th, 500,000+, moves to 7.3M+ units sold, but gained only 300K sales over Avatar, which is doing well. (In fact, The Hangover has been selling tons at bargain prices and is now at 10.2M units and threatening Up for the 2009 dvd selling title. Let’s hope the drug reference movie doesn’t topple it, however well done it was.) This was a slow week, and next week will see the debut of another animated biggie: Despicable Me. I wonder why the toys are absent in ToysRUs for this smash, kids love it! The minions are all over the dvd cover and I saw a kid walking around in Safeway yesterday with a yellow minion balloon trailing overhead. They are so adorable. Ok, two more holidays, 3 more weeks and the usual Academy Awards boost are still to come. Edit: Add 540K more for week ending Dec. 19th, and falls to #7 on the chart, but this is the week before Xmas. Lots of big titles just out: Desp Me, Twilight and Inception were all released at the same time. TS3 is 1.5M units behind Avatar which will pass 10M units over the holidays. I’m estimating, from looking at Up’s trajectory, that TS3 will finish with a bit over 11M sales, and if Avatar comes out with some sort of platinum edition with the new footage and other tasty treats, then the Toys will end up in 2nd place, dvd-wise, for 2010. But for movies released in 2010, it will come in first; it’s where you make the cutoff…

Deathly Hallows is just about certain now to not pass up the Toys in the theaters for 2010. I saw Tron and the midnite audience was respectful, staying thru the credits, but there wasn’t any applause. “Cool, way cool” doesn’t cut mustard with a so-so story, even with state-of-the-art graphics. Most of the actors seemed uninteresting, mechanical, wooden. The ending was predictable and flat, in fact most of the movie was kinda predictable and cheesy. Disney needs to come up with better live action movies and not depend on Pixar for its reputation. Edit: HP7 is fading fast in the U.S., but still doing strongly overseas. It’s possible the overseas total will approach, and perhaps pass, TS3’s $648M+, but it’s now completely safe to say:

Congratulations on Pixar’s win as the biggest grossing movie of 2010. And Disney was close behind with the #2… !!!

No one else is reporting dvd sales, so I guess this old thread can continue with that info… 8th and 9th week out, TS3 still holding up vs. furious competition, including Despicable Me and Twilight which have made over 5M and 7M sales, 3rd week out, respectively. The Toys chugged up to 9.3M units as of January 2nd and we are now nearly done with holiday sales. Avatar is at 10.1M. The season ends around Feb. 15th, altho a spurt at Academy Awards time is inevitable. Until then…

By the by, what’s the update on the likelihood of Harry Potter grossing more than Toy Story 3? It seems inevitable considering how fast it’s still grossing despite being out for almost 2 months - I think it made something like $22 million just this past weekend.

Well, one website says that Avatar was the #1 movie of 2010, and was in the top 5 of 2009. Indeed Avatar made more money in 2010 than TS3 did. Just depends on where you make the cutoff.

Like I suggested earlier, Potter just might beat TS3 in the overseas category, and it has pushed to $639M there, coming to within $10M of the Toys, which it is sure to pass. But domestically, it made only $2.2M over the past weekend, crawling to $287M and, like ALL Potter films will barely make $300M, if that, or just a bit over. When you have so many movies so close together in a series, you suffer from overkill, and the movie becomes heavily fan-based, and is front-loaded more than other movies(like the Twilight series) It has poor competition this winter as no blockbusters are ever released in January and February., at least not here in the U.S., overseas I’m not sure… Well, it now needs $125M to pass the Toys.

More Potter Facts: By Dec. 30th Potter had $862M global. By the next week it had about $902M, a big $40M New Years holiday pickup. It has about $926M now, a $24M pickup over last week, updated from your $22M number. The semi-experts at the worldofkj.com filmsite were surprised at the pickup and rattled off how well it was doing overseas. It might even do well in some locations there until early summer they say, with special double features. Will we have such matinee type double features here in the U.S. for Parts 1 and 2 next summer? I don’t know and sure don’t know how that box office pie will be divided!

Country by country comparison: HP7 pt 1 has done $127M less B.O. in the U.S., $50M less in Japan and $40M less in the U.K. It’s done about $30M less in Mexico, and less in nearly every other Latin American nation and $15M less than Spain. That’s almost $300M!! So where is it doing better? It’s done about $10M better in France and $40M in Germany and $20M each in Russia and China. Add $5M more for Italy. HP7 is doing 2x the action in Scandinavia and much better in the Netherlands and central Europe. It’s doing a bit better in South Korea, but trails in Hong Kong. Australia and Brazil: the movies are tied. That’s about it for the big nations, and HP is doing better in the ‘little nations’ (non-Western Hemisphere nations) not mentioned above. It is the 3rd biggest movie of 2010.

Edit 2 weeks later: well, its picked up a few million here in the U.S. and $16M total in 2 weeks overall, up to $942M global, and even tho it has indeed passed TS3 for the top overseas take of 2010, it still won’t even cross the $300M mark domestic! So, despite its huge opening weekend, the discriminating U.S. audiences have kept it from passing our Toys: a far superior movie by almost every competent critics measure.

Toy Story 3 as of February 20th is the #1 DVD here in the U.S. for 2010 !!! As usually happens just before Oscars, quality movies, especially Pixar ones since they are nominees, soar in sales, often due to specials at the Target store. Picking up about 650,000 dvd sales and getting second place for the week, TS3 blew by Avatar to reach nearly 10.5M units, it almost hit the #1 weekly spot which was occupied by Unstoppable. This isn’t permanent, as I would expect Avatar to continue selling like forever and ever, and it only includes dvd’s released in 2010 and I don’t think it includes BluRay. TS3 will probably continue to sell well until just before next summer’s Pixar release, Cars2.

Source: BoxOfficeMojo.com today, March 1st 2011 for the week ending Feb. 20th.