All of what follows is speculation, extrapolating from current data and possible trends.
ABBREVIATIONS:
FX = producer of CG animation and/or digital effects
PC = production company that outsources to (or partners with) FX
DI = distributor of films
KEY PLAYERS:
Disney (FX, PC, DI)
Pixar (FX, PC)
Blue Sky (FX, PC)
DreamWorks (FX, PC)
Sony Pictures Animation (PC)
Illumination Entertainment (PC)
Sony Pictures ImageWorks (FX)
Aardman Animations (FX)
Animal Logic (FX)
ILM (FX)
20th Century Fox (DI)
Paramount (DI)
Universal (DI)
Columbia (DI)
The future looks like it will bring less CG features offered by fewer PC/FX outfits who are partnering and consolidating to stay competitive. It’s tough out there!
As long as it maintains its near-unique reputation for creativity, Disney/Pixar will be the most bulletproof juggernaut of all CG-feature providers. It has everything in one mouse house.
DreamWorks has enough creativity and plenty of moneymaking juice to sustain it, but the interesting possibility that it is negotiating a DI arrangement other than via Paramount raises questions. Is it looking for a new DI or trying to go solo and be the next mouse house before a certain guy’s exit stage left? Could either tactic weaken DreamWorks’s long-term stability? Maybe.
Blue Sky seems content to balance creativity and financial success with Fox as its DI, and it might be owned outright by Fox anyway. It’s hard to see how either party would upset the apple cart.
So if one lumps Walt Disney Animation Studios under the Disney/Pixar umbrella, Disney/Pixar, DreamWorks, and Blue Sky are the Big Three of CG animation that are probably sticking around for the foreseeable future. But of the three, DreamWorks is the only one that has announced a large number of future features. It seems likely that at least some of that is “let’s see what sticks to the wall.” Disney/Pixar and Blue Sky are comparatively coy about their future projects, so DreamWorks might be a bit on the blustery side of reality.
Moving down the line, things get increasingly dicey.
Sony Pictures Animation is a PC all over the map. It made more money worldwide from The Smurfs (CG-star with live action) than from any of its full-CG features. It has partnered with various FX outfits in no consistent fashion. For example, Arthur Christmas is a collaboration of FX (Aardman and Sony Pictures ImageWorks), overseen by PC Sony Pictures Animation. Probably the primary benefit of this arrangement is the relationship with DI Columbia, the only consistent element. It will be interesting to see how Hotel Transylvania (with its reportedly troubled production) fares versus The Smurfs 2. Also, if Arthur Christmas and The Pirates! perform below expectations, it would be no surprise if Sony were to scale back on CG features and focus on CG-star/live action films, almost all of which have done well for PCs that produced them.
It seems Universal’s purchase of half of France-based FX Mac Guff has moved Illumination Entertainment toward becoming more than a PC. On the other hand, after The Lorax, Illumination is reportedly planning a mix of animation styles for features (including stop-motion for The Addams Family). If Woody Woodpecker comes out, it seems likely it would be a CG-star/live-action mix, as was Hop–which was financially successful. So Illumination is trying multiple approaches, and if The Lorax or Despicable Me 2 underperforms at the box office, they could shy away from full-CG features.
Aardman seems to be happier in its partnership with Sony than with DreamWorks. Even so, as an FX-only operation in need of a DI and probably a PC, and with its reputation based on stop-motion animation, it’s hard to look at Aardman as a major provider of CG features.
Animal Logic seems to be out of the CG-feature game after the less-than-hoped-for performance of Legend of the Guardians. Also, Animal Logic was not on hand for Happy Feet Two even though it produced the successful original Happy Feet. They seem to be focused on the FX model of supplying digital effects to live-action films, which is probably their best bet for success. It’s hard to see how another full-tilt CG feature will come out of Animal Logic any time soon.
ILM is supposedly working on another unnamed feature, possibly with a strong Lucas/Star Wars connection. As with Animal Logic, their bread and butter will always primarily be effects for live-action films, so any CG features will probably be few and far between.
Other smaller players on the international front are teaming up and still plugging away at CG features. Canadian FX Arc Productions (ex-Starz) and U.S. PC Vanguard are collaborating on The Nut House. India’s Crest Animation and Reel FX/Bedrock Studios in the States are supposedly at work on Turkeys, and somewhere in the mix is Norm of the North. Then there are a whole bunch of international players who seem to be stymied in their attempts to penetrate the English-language CG-feature market, with several features reportedly in work but not completed or on a DI’s slate.
On the other hand, there is possible new CG-animation activity at Fox Animation Studios, MGM, Screen Gems (Columbia), Paramount Animation, and Digital Domain’s budding Tradition Studios spin-off. Of all these, Tradition seems to have the best shot at becoming a regular producer of CG-animated features along the lines of Pixar, Blue Sky, and DreamWorks. Even so, the landscape remains challenging given the continuum of projects that range from live action to full CG-animation, with many profitable points in between. And these possible future players have related but separate core businesses to fall back upon should market conditions prove unfavorable for fully CG-animated features.
Bottom line: The future = less CG-animated features from fewer studios.