The year’s more than half over now, unless a miracle occurs I’d bet all my money on Toy Story 3 scoring a nomination. 
My Nominations for Best Picture so far:
Shutter Island
Kick Ass
Toy Story 3
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs the World
I am warming up to the idea of Toy Story 3 being nominated for best picture. At first I didn’t think it was at all possible, but maybe it is.
Not to hurt any fans of How to Train Your Dragon or Scott Pilgrim, but as much as they’re loved by critics and moviegoers in general, I don’t think either are ‘Oscar material’. ie In order to qualify as ‘Oscar-worthy’, you gotta have someone with a disability in it, who is an orphan, and some huge war or global event is going on, and they’ll speak in monologues and soliloquies about existentialism and human hardship. You know?
Of course, movies like Beauty and the Beast and Lord of the Rings have broken that norm, but most of the time the Academy is biased towards arthouse films directed by famous directors and starring washed-out or critically-acclaimed actors (or both).
I still think Toy Story 3 stands a very, very good chance, especially after they recognised Up last year (probably due to the outcry over Wall-E, although I may be imagining this).
I think if TS3 fails to get a Best Pic nom, it’s in for some tough competition this year for Best Animated Ghetto. I’m surprised no one has mentioned the more arthouse animated flicks like The Illusionist or My Dog Tulip. Tangled and Legend of the Guardians are also two blockbuster ‘dark horses’ to watch out for.
I’ve thought for a while that one of the biggest requirements for a Best Picture nominee is that the movie has to make you cry, or otherwise stir some uncomfortable feelings in you. The big advantage TS3 has is that it makes grown adults cry. Up had that, too - and Up’s biggest emotional scene was early in the movie, where TS3’s biggest emotional scenes are toward the end, which can only help even further.
Up wasn’t as emotional to me as TS3. Alright his wife died which WAS really sad, but Pixar didn’t develop her character enough. However [spoil]in TS3 seeing characters we’ve known and loved for years accepting their death was far more tear worthy to me anyway.[/spoil]
Edit: And sadly Kick-Ass will probably be ignored at the Oscars due to their stupidity. The last two best picture winners were ridiculous choices.
SadStrangeLittleMan: You’re right, kickass will totally be ignored due to it’s exessive violence, and not that serious plot. But it was still a great movie anyway!
What about Harry Potter 7 part 1?
Another good question. It’s a sequel, so I don’t know. But I won’t count it out, although I seriously doubt HP7 is going to do much in the Oscars. It just doesn’t seem to be what they’re looking for. But it IS going to be epic 
The Hurt Locker was pretty good (even though Up should’ve won), but I agree about Slumdog Millionare. It was a great movie, but not worth deserving the Best Picture Oscar (let alone essentially all the Oscars).
…and “Jai Ho” won for Best Song? “Jai Ho”? Seriously? Even against “Down to Earth”? It still won? C’mon! That was just a little radio/soccer tune; not an actual masterpiece like the work of Peter Gabriel that year. It was very obvious that the Academy felt pity for Slumdog Millionare and awarded it for everything it could possibly be nominated for. I mean it’s not every day that a simple funky beat that repeats over and over wins over one of the greatest songs written for a movie (if not in general) ever!
Perhaps we should host the Oscars this year (or at least an unofficial version on the site)…but then again Toy Story 3 would win everything if that was the case, including the acting awards.
On the subject of all the movies that might not be “oscar material”, I think most of the ones mentioned are probably going to get nominated in minor catagories. Inception for score, editing, maybe screenplay (think District 9), How to Train Your Dragon for score (heard the music was supposed to be good, I actually haven’t seen it so I can’t list any others), and Scott Pilgrim better get nominated for editing and probably those random sound awards. Remember, Half-Blood Prince got nominated only for it’s cinematography, and nothing else last year, so these will probably find their way in some way or another. Kick-Ass, I fear, will be neglected essentially because it debuted early in the year and the academy seems to have a short memory.
I’m betting on Toy Story 3 getting nominated in all the catagories Up got last year, including Best Picture. Which ones it wins, I can’t be sure.
Unfortunately, Harry Potter movies never do well at the Oscars 
I really don’t get the Oscars. Toy Story 3 was probably the best movie I have ever seen, and although it’ll probably get nominated for Best Picture, it won’t win. Why do they have to have such a bias against animated movies? O prefer animation to live action. Why can’t they treat them as equals???
Well, animation has come a long way! It’s taken a lot more seriously then it use to, 10 years ago there was no category for “Best Animated Feature”. Things are changing, but slowly.
Yeah… and it’s a big leap that Up was nominated for BP, even though Beauty and the Beast was before. I just wish TS3 would win.
My sophmore year in english class, we had to write persuasive speeches. My speech was entitled “For Your Consideration… Wall-E for Best Picture”. In my opinion, this was an amazing speech. I analyzed all the various reasons that Wall-E deserved the nomination, from being critically acclaimed to raising Oscar viewership.
Unfortunately, the film did not win the nomination. Thankfully, Up did though. Sure, the move to ten Best Picture nominees helped, but it still deserved it (almost as much as Wall-E).
Hopefully Toy Story 3 can pull it off, but I think it will be much more difficult to do.
Well, TS3 won’t be winning an Annie this year. They withdrew from ASIFA and won’t be nominated at the Annies.
I guess Disney was bored of Pixar always winning the animated awatd.
That has always annoyed me. What’s wrong with imaginative feel-good movies or light-hearted blockbusters like Spirited Away, Pirates of the Carribean or The Matrix? In fact, the latter has some pretty deep philosophizing on existentialism and Baudrillard and all that, but it got the bog-standard ‘Best Visual Effects’ award instead of the overrated American Beauty.
The Academy has to ‘wise up’ and evolve with the times. ‘Critical merit’ and ‘popular culture’ need not be mutually-exclusive properties.
That made me pretty happy. 