It’s kind of disappointing. WALL•E was expected to be Pixar’s second-biggest box office behind Finding Nemo. Most predictions I had read had this movie clocked at about $280 million (that’s $20 mil more than The Incredibles). Now it will probably only ammount to $220-225, and that’s only if it stays on track with Ratatouille from now on and doesn’t keep dropping like it has been. I do think it will outgross Kung Fu Panda, though not by much. Possibly by as little as $3-5 million. As for the top-grossing animated film of '08? Well, it’s too early to say, but the only real competition WALL•E has there is Madagascar 2. After all, it is a sequel, and the first one grossed over $193 million. I could definitely see the second doing better than the first (and coming very, very close to WALL•E’s total). Plus, it’s got a nice holiday release date going for it.
Worldwide, however, I think WALL•E will do very well. For some reason, foreign grosses were never updated last week, so WALL•E should be getting a large jump in foreign totals soon. Currently it is only in a handful of smaller markets, with the big countries like the UK, Japan, France, etc. coming later in the year, much like Ratatouille last year. So foreign grosses will start out small, then increase as time goes on. I can see WALL•E grossing almost as much as Ratatouille’s foreign gross (Rat got $414.9), and possibly more than Ratatouille worldwide ($621.4).
One other comment about WALL•E’s domestic total: a $225 mil total is NOT a bad total at all! WALL•E will still be a success no matter how much it makes. It will definitely cross the $200 million mark, which only a dozen animated films have ever done (with KFP being the latest), and incidentally, six of those twelve spots are taken with Pixar features. Pixar has yet to make a movie that’s considered a box office “failure” and WALL•E will absolutely not change that. Also, yes, WALL•E is dropping faster than was expected, but this is not the movie’s fault! There is a ton of competition this summer, more than most years. I mean, at the moment, there are no fewer than FIVE family-friendly movies in the top 10! Yet WALL•E is still pulling it’s own weight. Meet Dave completely bombed this weekend, and while “Journey to the Center of the Earth” pushed WALL•E to fourth place, it will probably have a hard time reaching it’s own $60 mil production costs. And I don’t see Space Chimps being very popular, either.
WALL•E keeps clicking along, taking blows, although not serious ones. Now, to it’s credit, Kung Fu Panda is doing exceptionally well through all this family fanfare also, but it is also probably the best non-Pixar animated film in a while…