Predict how TS3 will end at the box office.

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#101

A very big charge forward of $40M for the week. Where in the world did it come from??!:

$2M from the U.S. Despite 8 new releases in the past 2 weeks and falling from #7 to #16, and losing nearly 500 screens, down to 730. It will bump up in 2 weeks when they add a couple afternoon shows on the U.S. Labor Day holiday, with perhaps +400 screens. Then TS3 will fall precipitously in its homeland. Time to think about the dvd!

$10M from Japan, to over $107M, pretty good after last week’s big haul with their holiday. Rey claims more holidays soon ahead will boost it, but this is the 7th week and I just don’t know if their market can support much more: Wall-E and Up died very quickly in February after their Dec. 5th releases.

Britain: i’m having a terrible time finding out anything from there. Edit: fell to 3rd place in its 5th week, but still scored about $7M and is up to $99.2M there, their 5th biggest movie of all time:

1 Avatar Fox £91,487,242 '09
2 Mamma Mia! Univ £69,166,922 '08
3 Titanic Fox £69,025,646 '98
4 HP & The Sorcerer’s Stone WB £66,096,060 '01
5 TOY STORY 3 Disney £63,848,415 2010
6 LotR: Fellowship of the Ring Ent £63,009,288 '01
7 LotR: Return of the King Ent £61,062,348 '03
8 LotR: Two Towers Entertainment £57,600,094 '02
9 Casino Royale Sony £55,600,009 '06
10 HP & Chamber of Secrets WB £54,780,731 '02

France: still in their top10, up to 3.63M admissions, a little over $1-1.5M for the week and up to $38.4M; Spain: up to $26.5M and about $1.5M for the week. The Spaniards noted that this time last year Up was chugging along, and doing better than TS3. Italy: a good $2M, 3rd place. The Sorcerer’s Apprentice debuted #1 in Italy and Germany, where TS3 scores between $14-15M total for each nation.

South Korea: drops to 6th place. Bleech.

Scandinavia coming next weekend and expected to add $15M+ to the haul.

Worldofkj.com has altered it’s forecast with a final tally now of $1,062,000,000, this is $37M more than what was predicted just 2 weeks ago! Few people had guessed it would go this high. You guys here aren’t the only ones who think it will pass $1b next week and then slip by Alice the week after. I thought just last week it would take 5 weeks to do it, not three. But it was clear a week or so ago that the toys would be #1 for the year soon.

#102

Wow, glad to hear Toy Story 3 is still going strong across the world! Sorry DarkHandOfSigourneyWeaver, I’ve had a search and I can’t find anything useful about Britain’s numbers either for some reason. The latest thing I could find was something from 17th August-

“The Disney/Pixar comedy took $5m (£3.2m) from 559 screens at an average of $8,704 (£5,559) over the August 13 - 15 weekend, and has now grossed a magisterial $92.2m (£58.9m). A further $3.1m (£2m) and the family-comedy will overtake The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King as the sixth most successful film of all time at the UK box office.”

Sounding good to me! In a couple of weeks the kids will be going back to school, so I wouldn’t be surprised at a drop then, but until that time hopefully Toy Story 3 has a chance of continuing as strongly as it is now.

Oh, and welcome to the boards, Johnny_Boy!

#103

Domestically, TS3 will end up as the 9th biggest grossing movie of all time, very similar to how Finding Nemo did. But with the growth of overseas markets, it will push into the 5th spot globally, and there is a small chance … 4th, passing yet another Disney movie, one of the Pirates.

Some of the analyst gurus over at worldofkj.com complain that if Russia, Germany and Eastern Europe hadn’t been so blahh, that our toys would be knocking on the door of 3rd place, behind Avatar and Titanic, which would have been awesome…

I visited my area Disney store this weekend, they had a big cardboard of Wall-E, but virtually no Wall-E merchandise. The woman there (their employees change like a revolving door) was well versed in Disney movies. And all the toy stores are chock full of Pixar’s toys. I would guess this situation will remain until next spring, when a tidal wave of Cars toys will debut.

#104

I’m sorry Italy hasn’t been participating to well, but most of the big cities (Rome, Naples, etc.) have all their movie theatres closed for two months so the owners can go on vacations. :frowning: You’d think they’d want to stay open during the summer due to the increased population of tourists, but whatever. :neutral_face:

#105

Poor, unhappy Chuckles. We have Mediterranean climate here too in coastal California, rarely below freezing, mild summer this year, with only 3 days maybe over 31 degrees C (86 F), and it’s big for traveling, all the airlines are jammed, hotels crowded. Big heat wave tho thruout most of the rest of the USA this summer, and ppl want to be outdoors when the sun goes down. But an early evening movie, 7-9pm is popular if you don’t want to walk around the downtown and have dinner at a restaurant.

However, theaters NEVER shut down, especially summer and holidays, including Xmas day, which is a big, big day, or our July 4th, on which the very big movie Independence Day premiered. Many multiplexes have midnight shows every weekend, including movies like TS3. Stores close maybe single days once a month for national holidays, or if some employee died! I think it’s more than just the owners in Italy. I thought it was only one month that Europe shut down, preferably August, including the employees. If you truly have a Euro economy, then you would think that Eastern Europeans would come into Italy looking for summer work mixed with fun.

We used to have what were called ‘Blue Laws’ in the U.S. Almost all businesses were closed on Sundays, in accordance with The Ten Commandments and out of respect for employees. Banks always closed at 3pm to count the money. No more, everything seems to be open as long as possible, in many large cities many businesses are open 24 hours, especially food stores stocking for the next day. Many gas stations with markets: open 24 hrs. Fitness centers: mine is always open 24/7 but 2 days a year. Banks are open to 6pm, longer for branches inside supermarkets, and 24 hr automatic money machines. The computer center I’m in now is open to 2am, with peak business in summer/holidays. If the owner is absent, someone who wants to earn a wage will fill in… Money talks loudest here now.

#106

This is important to follow for TS3 in Japan to make $40million more in ticket sales, which is definitely possible by the end of September. It’s the yen/dollar exchange. On July 12th it was selling at 88.84yen to the dollar. This morning in Japan the yen was selling at 83.99yen. That means the yen is getting stronger. Walt Disney Japan sales target for TS3 is 11 billion yen. If you convert the yen into dollars with this mornings’ exchange rate that comes to $131 million, but back on July 12th’s rate that was $124 million. If or when the yen gets to the 78yen/dollar exchange rate by next month and you convert 11 billion yen into US dollars that comes to $141 million.

Help us Walt Disney Japan marketing. You’re our only hope to make TS3 as the number 3 all time grossing film in the world up there with Avatar and Titanic. After September there will be no hope. Make TS3 number 3! Make TS3 number 3!! Make TS3 number 3!!!

#107

Well, one poster over at the other mentioned forum claimed that TS3 had a 60%(hmm, looks like about a 45% one to me) falloff in its 7th week, quite high for a post Ebon festival week. Anyways, Rey and I knew it would drop from that long holiday. It’s encouraging that commentators there have been comparing our toys to the very highest grossing movies of all time. (To be honest I don’t think that TS3 is even in the same ballpark as the previous triad of Pixar movies, all of which were either extraordinary or masterpieces. And that needs to be said from time to time in this thread just so our priorities aren’t confused. Money is essential, but not paramount.)

Help us, Obon Wani Kyujitsu, you’re our only hope. Eat up the competitors! At the pool in your temple we bow, clap-clap, toss in offering of fish sticks, recite a prayer, donate a few coins, jump into the air in unison, or whatever it takes…

#108

DarkHandOfSigourneyWeaver wrote:

Well said.

We should talk also about about audience volume too. In Japan 6.3 million happy viewers have watched TS3 at least once. I’ve seen it twice and when the kiddies go back to school I’m gonna watch TS3 on “mens” movie day, which are on Thursdays. You pay a discounted price for tickets at the theaters. My projected audience count in Japan will be around 7.3 million plus 2.
The source.
movies.jp.msn.com/news/article.a … eid=383685

Edit: I did some checking about last years highest rated movie in Japan. Michael Jackson This Is It was the highest rated film and the film was in movie theaters in Japan for 256 days. TS3 is the highest rated film this year and scored higher than This Is It, so we could watch TS3 for over eight months in movie theaters here.

#109

That’s just your opinion and has nothing to do with this thread.

TS3 has better reviews than the last three pixars,has nearly doubled both Wall-E and Ratatouille in gross and has better audience acceptance,i.e better wom.

Just because you liked them better has nothing to do with reality or objectiveness by any means.

#110

Yes, that is the right number who have seen it there. I assume you see it with translation and no subtitles? Michael Jackson? You don’t want to get me started on him, but here the makers were disappointed it wasn’t a mega-movie. What do you mean by highest rated?

The feeling I’ve been getting from your posts, and what I know about Japan, is that you guys operate on consensus more than other nationalities and that if a large fraction of the population (and commentators/critics) find a movie to their liking, then a majority of the entire population fall in behind supporting that movie. We have movies that open with promise and die quickly too, but perhaps for different reasons.

In the U.S. there are 2 cultures of movie patrons, those who support big adrenaline, action, big star, heavy advertising movies, and then the art house crowd. The Academy Award winner is usually from the second group, altho some nominations will come from the first group too. Two years ago, no matter how many people jumped up and down over The Dark Knight, it didn’t make the 5 noms (neither did Wall-E) and prognosticators felt it wouldn’t even hit the top 7 or 8 in nomination votes! Only Wall-E had a higher rating in the critics Top 10 lists for 2008. These two cultures, and even many other subcultures, are accepted. Increasingly, movie patrons haven’t been listening to the top critics like they used to. They text each other with their cell phones to make recommendations. Also, only a minority make their choices from Academy winners.

When we did the box office thread for Up, some people got upset over all the concern over the numbers. “It was a great movie, no matter how much it makes, wherever in the world!” kind of sums up some Pixar buffs reaction. So, once every few weeks in this thread, I back up and look at the big picture. Safe, big money sequels just aren’t as interesting to me (and most critics and indeed most Pixarians) as a completely original story is.

#111

There are two rankings that TS3 holds number one now and maybe one more, top grossing film in Japan for 2010. The first number one TS3 holds is the number one rated film EVER, in Japan, for its first day only.
chinacenter.jp/japanese/cine … index.html

The second number one is for current showing viewer number satisfaction.
pia-eigaseikatsu.jp/rave0/

Let me say brand name carries a lot in Japan like Studio Ghibli and Hayao Miyazaki, but Pixar is right. Story is king.

Check out the top five rated films ever in Japan from this site.

  1. The Shawshank Redemption (year 1994, rated 87.62)
  2. Toy Story 3 (2010, 87.06)
  3. It’s a Wonderful Life (1946, 86.82)
  4. The Seven Samurai (1954, 86.43)
  5. Back to the Future (1985, 86.36)
  6. The Godfather (1972, 84.33)
    pia-eigaseikatsu.jp/rave1/

Anyways, my prediction for TS3 is it will be the number one grossing film in Japan for 2010.

Edit: The Magnificent Seven was made in 1960 not in 1954. I meant The Seven Samurai released in 1954 in Japan and directed by Akira Kurosawa.

#112

If you didn’t know Toy Story 3 has now become the highest grossing animated film of all time and is cruising towards 1 billion dollars.

#113

That’s awesome to know, YouAreAToy!

I hope it’ll end up being bigger than Avatar, because I didn’t like Avatar, and the Toy Story trilogy is awesome no matter how you slice it.

#114

It is official: TS3 has crossed a billion. PARTY!!!

#115

fireworks and glee :smiley:

Yay Toy Story 3! I never expected it to earn this much money.

Congratulations to Pixar and Lee Unkrich.

#116

YAY! :smiley: parties Virtual cake for everyone to celebrate!

#117

All Right! Lets see DreamWorks BEAT THAT! Congrats to Pixar, Toy Story 3, and fans everywhere!

#118

Really? Explodes with excitement

#119

Does anybody have the figures for the grossing being adjusted for inflation??:D?

#120

You can bet Jeff Katzenburg is pissed Right now. LOL :smiley: